Turning Point USA straw poll makes Vice President JD Vance the overwhelming favorite for 2028 — “all in” at AmericaFest 2025 Phoenix
Vice President JD Vance emerged as the overwhelming favorite for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination in Turning Point USA’s AmericaFest 2025 straw poll in Phoenix, securing 84.2% of attendee votes and drawing strong TPUSA backing and resources.
- Massive on-site support: TPUSA reported 84.2% support for JD Vance among AmericaFest attendees, the highest share the group says it has recorded (see Turning Point USA / AmericaFest coverage and poll reporting).
- Not a scientific poll: The straw poll reflects a self-selected activist crowd and is not nationally representative; other polls show different dynamics (Fox News).
- Small runner-up shares: Reports place Marco Rubio, Vivek Ramaswamy and Ron DeSantis in the low single digits in the on-site vote, with some outlet variation in exact percentages (CBS Austin, KATU).
- Local stakes: A TPUSA-backed Vance run could shift campaign spending, events and organizing in Nevada — especially in Las Vegas — but broader Republican coalitions remain more diverse than the AmericaFest base.
Poll findings and methodology
What happened: Turning Point USA (TPUSA) conducted an on-site straw poll among AmericaFest 2025 attendees in Phoenix (Dec. 18–21). TPUSA released a figure showing 84.2% of respondents naming Vice President JD Vance as their preferred 2028 Republican nominee; TPUSA spokesman Andrew Kolvet characterized the result as evidence conservatives are “all in” for Vance (Turning Point USA / AmericaFest coverage and poll reporting).
Variation in reporting: Several regional outlets and social posts cited a slightly different Vance figure (about 82.6%) and reported runner-up totals in the low single digits for Marco Rubio, Vivek Ramaswamy and Ron DeSantis; these discrepancies reflect immediate post-event reporting and do not change the overall picture of dominant support for Vance (CBS Austin, KATU, Bakersfield Now).
Methodological note: TPUSA straw polls are not scientific. They measure enthusiasm and name recognition among a politically like-minded, self-selected set of conservative activists and students, and should not be read as a national representative poll (Fox News).
Threats facing America: what the poll showed — and what is unverified
Organizers asked attendees about the biggest threats facing the country. Some widely shared raw tallies that circulated online — for example, precise counts like 31,008 selecting “radical Islam” and similar seven-figure-style lists — could not be independently verified in major coverage. Searches of available reporting did not locate those specific tallies.
Officially published priorities and issue percentages varied in format across outlets. Fox News cited concerns including voter integrity/voter ID (9.3%), affordability (8.1%), mass deportations (5.3%) and accountability for what some attendees called the “deep state” (4.2%). The presence of divergent formats and numbers suggests some post-conference tallies or social posts included unverified figures; treat those raw counts cautiously.
Context and endorsements
Erika Kirk’s pledge: Erika Kirk, CEO of Turning Point Action and widow of TPUSA founder Charlie Kirk, used her AmericaFest platform to praise Vance and pledged TPUSA resources toward a possible run, calling him a close ally (reported in Turning Point USA / AmericaFest coverage and poll reporting).
Vance’s status: Vance has not declared a 2028 candidacy. People close to him say he is focused on the 2026 midterms and plans to consult with former President Trump after those contests; he expressed gratitude through intermediaries for TPUSA’s show of support (CBS Austin).
Implications for Las Vegas, Nevada
Economic impact: A TPUSA-backed Vance push could increase campaign visits, ad buys and local vendor contracts in Las Vegas, generating spending on venues, hotels, production and temporary hires.
Political consequences: Las Vegas is a mixed urban electorate; TPUSA’s activist base differs from the broader Nevada voter pool. If TPUSA mobilizes, campaigns may focus precinct-level organizing and local endorsements, potentially reshaping primary strategies.
Social and cultural effects: Messaging on immigration, national security and cultural issues that gained traction at AmericaFest may intensify local debates and spur counter-organizing from community and civic groups, particularly in diverse neighborhoods.
Practical takeaways for residents:
- Expect potential campaign events and increased political advertising if Vance’s candidacy firms up.
- Local volunteer recruitment for canvassing/phone banking may rise around primary season.
- Nonprofits and community organizations may launch outreach to respond to national messaging affecting local services and relations.
What this means for 2028 and the GOP
Momentum vs. breadth: The AmericaFest straw poll signals strong activist enthusiasm and an organizing apparatus that can matter in early-state mobilization, but it does not guarantee broader GOP unity. Modern presidential contests are shaped by calendars, fundraising, media coverage, elites and events that can change voter sentiment.
“Straw polls measure intensity at one moment and one place — useful for momentum inside activist circles but not a substitute for large, scientific polling or campaign infrastructure.”
Sources and reporting
- Turning Point USA / AmericaFest coverage and poll reporting
- Fox News on Turning Point Action AmericaFest poll and priorities
- CBS Austin report on TPUSA straw poll results and context
- KATU coverage
- Bakersfield Now
- Related video coverage
Reporting note: The TPUSA AmericaFest results show clear activist enthusiasm for JD Vance, but readers should understand the limits of a convention straw poll. Exact threat tallies circulated online were not confirmed by major outlets; TPUSA’s published materials and mainstream reporting listed above are the most reliable available records.
