How the COLA is calculated and why September matters

The COLA uses the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI‑W). The Social Security Administration compares the average CPI‑W for the third quarter (July, August, September) with the same period a year earlier. If that three‑month average rises, benefits increase the following year to help keep pace with inflation.

September is decisive because the BLS releases the September CPI in mid‑October; that number completes the third‑quarter average the SSA must use by law to calculate COLA.

BLS furlough risk and potential CPI release delay

A government shutdown in October 2025 could furlough most BLS staff and push back the Consumer Price Index release for September. The Department of Labor’s contingency plan warns that

“economic data releases, including the September CPI, will likely be delayed if the lapse is prolonged.”

(Source summary reported by AARP).

What a delay would look like

If the CPI release is delayed, the SSA cannot make its usual mid‑October COLA announcement. This would mostly affect timing and certainty — not benefit payments. Social Security checks are funded through payroll taxes and dedicated trust funds and are not dependent on the annual appropriations process. Payments are expected to continue on schedule even if the COLA announcement is postponed. (Sources: Fox Business, Globe Charter.)

The scale of the expected change

Analysts using available inflation data before September estimate a 2026 COLA of about 2.7%. On average, that would increase retired‑worker benefits by roughly $54 per month, from about $2,008 to $2,062. These are estimates made before the final September CPI and the official COLA could be higher or lower once the BLS releases the full data. (Sources: Fox Business, Globe Charter.)

Past precedent: 2013

This situation is not without precedent. During the federal shutdown in October 2013, agencies including the BLS were affected and the SSA’s COLA announcement was delayed — demonstrating how a lapse in funding can push back standard government schedules. Analysts and advocates reference the 2013 experience when warning of similar outcomes in 2025. (Source: Fox Business.)

Government shutdown impact on data and planning

The primary impact of a shutdown here is logistical: furloughs at the BLS would slow or pause release of key economic indicators like the CPI. The SSA is legally required to use BLS figures when calculating COLA and cannot substitute other data sources to finalize the 2026 adjustment. (Sources: AARP, Fox Business.)

What retirees and families should know now

Implications for Las Vegas, Nevada

Economic impact: Las Vegas has many retired residents and households on fixed incomes. A delayed COLA announcement could complicate budgeting for seniors and low‑income residents, potentially slowing discretionary spending that supports local businesses and medical providers.

Political consequences: Nevada’s congressional delegation and state leaders may face heightened pressure to resolve funding gaps quickly; a delayed COLA announcement would draw additional attention and could fuel calls for better contingency planning.

Social effects: Uncertainty about benefit increases can create anxiety for families relying on Social Security as primary income. Community groups and social‑service providers in southern Nevada may see more short‑term requests for help with food, utilities, or medical copays.

Practical steps: Local recipients should monitor SSA.gov and local news; contact financial counseling services, community centers, or Nevada aging services for short‑term planning assistance; and consider contacting congressional representatives to express concerns.

Sources and further reading

Reporting draws on multiple outlets and official agency guidance. See original pieces and official sites for full details: